Opinion: The Case for Cautious COVID Optimism This Winter

The Case for Cautious COVID Optimism This Winter Several key factors mean that we're unlikely to face a major COVID-19 surge this winter, argue Drs. Michael Daignault and Monica Gandhi YahooNews

At this time last year and two years ago, daily new infections and covid-related hospitalizations were already accelerating at a fast clip. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, the latest Omicron subvariants, came to comprise the majority of cases during a relative lull in the pandemic. Combined with a Thanksgiving Holiday that saw the most travelers since the pandemic started, there has been a steady increase in covid metrics.

However, there are many reasons to be optimistic. A combination of factors—a high level of population immunity, Omicron family antigenic drift, convergence of mutations that seem to have hit an evolutionary ceiling, almost nonexistent severe covid illness in the hospital, and viral interference from RSV and Influenza surges—means we are in a surprisingly good place with COVID-19 in winter 2022-23.

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